Election promises are coming fast and thick to Wendouree, ranging from extra hospital beds to AFL games, with funds for local sporting groups, business precincts and landmark buildings thrown in for good measure.

Premier Denis Napthine travels to Ballarat almost every week to campaign because he believes the survival of his government depends on it. The metropolitan seat of Wendouree, covering the town’s centre, has a notional Liberal margin of 0.1 per cent.

In 2010 Labor’s Sharon Knight won the old seat of Ballarat West by a slim margin from Liberal candidate Craig Coltman, but last year’s boundary changes excised the working-class, Labor-voting suburb of Sebastopol.

A Labor insider told The Citizen that Knight’s office was deeply disappointed by that loss.

Mr Coltman now stands a better chance against his old foe and a win would help the government compensate for seats it is predicted to lose in Melbourne.

The Napthine government has announced $83 million for the Ballarat Base Hospital. This includes a helipad for ambulance helicopter emergency transfers, $10 million for a second cardiac lab (matching Labor’s promise) and $8 million for mental health services.

Mr Napthine said the expansion would mean more than 90 extra hospital beds. A further $20 million shared fund was announced for a new partnership with the Royal Children’s Hospital, “RCH@Ballarat”, to improve paediatric services.  

He has also promised to move VicRoads headquarters to the Civic Hall site in Ballarat’s CBD. 

A 1950s brick structure with art deco touches, Civic Hall has been sitting empty for years and plans to redevelop it have consistently stalled, much to the frustration of locals.

The VicRoads proposal is popular with the local business community who believe the move will bring flow-on financial benefits. 

Liberal candidate Craig Coltman told UniPollWatch that local real estate agents had said they were already getting enquiries from VicRoads staff.

But some locals say the State Revenue Office move in 2001 from Melbourne to Ballarat’s outskirts failed to bring people into the CBD.

In July Mr Napthine announced a $5.3 million “masterplan” to redevelop the historical Ballarat railway precinct with its striking 19th century clock tower – a reminder of Ballarat’s gold rush history. 

“We need to create a critical mass of people in the heart of Ballarat…”  — Jodie Gillett, Commerce Ballarat

The project would include a four-and-a-half star hotel, shops, and gardens. But Labor recently announced it would inject $25 million into the precinct, creating 140 jobs. Business groups regard this development and the VicRoads move as crucial solutions to revitalise Ballarat’s CBD.

The executive officer of the advocacy group Commerce Ballarat, Ms Jodie Gillett, told UniPollWatch “retail and hospitality are crucial to the vibrancy of any city”.

“We need to create a critical mass of people in the heart of Ballarat to support this sector,” she said. “The relocation of VicRoads is key to activating the CBD… it’s an absolute game changer for the city.”

Meanwhile one of Labor’s biggest promises so far is $31.5 million for major sporting facilities, including $15 million to upgrade Eureka Stadium to hold between 15-20,000 people. 

Labor candidate Sharon Knight told UniPollWatch that a larger grandstand would allow the venue to host AFL games.

“Only Labor will get Eureka Stadium up to AFL standard, bringing premiership season games to Ballarat. This will be a huge boost for local jobs and business.”

The Western Bulldogs have pledged their support and said they’ll play premiership games in Ballarat if Labor wins the election. The team said they were keen to play two to three games a season in Ballarat and have an office there next year.

Included in Labor’s $31.5 million is $2.5 million for a first stage upgrade of the  CE Brown Reserve, home of the Lake Wendouree Football Netball Club, and $9 million to upgrade the Wendouree Sports and Events Centre’s netball and basketball courts. Both parties have promised $5 million to improve the Ballarat Showgrounds. 

Labor has also promised $350,000  for the Iris Ramsay Kindergarten.

Ballarat is Victoria’s fastest growing regional city and its population is predicted to surge in coming years.

The so-called “Ballarat West Growth Area” announced in 2009 by the State Government, includes a designated 1,717 hectare space where 18,000 new houses are to be built to accommodate more than 40,000 people.

Directly north is the “Ballarat West Employment Zone”, a 623 hectare precinct planned to be a base for manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade and transport industries.

However, many locals complain that little progress has been made on this policy. 

An editorial in Ballarat’s newspaper, The Courier, said in October last year that the area, “seen as so key to the city’s economic and community-building future is currently but a vast expanse of land on planning documents”. 

The policy has bipartisan support and both Ms Knight and Mr Coltman have promised to get things moving.

There is a stark wealth gap in the electorate. Victorian houses and elite private schools dotted around Lake Wendouree strike a sharp contrast to the humbler timber bungalows in Wendouree West, a drug-affected community and one of the poorest suburbs in Victoria.

“There is a lack of things to do for kids on weekends so they turn to drugs and alcohol.” — resident Josh Kennedy

Ballarat Clarendon Secondary College ranks among the state’s highest achieving schools, while Wendouree West’s Yuille Park Community College has some of the most economically disadvantaged students in the state, according to a 2012 report by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development.

The contrast adds to the sense that this electorate could vote either way.

Health is a major issue for voters in Ballarat. Almost a third of residents have cardiovascular disease, according to a recent Heart Foundation study, and it is the worst place in the state for heart attacks.

The study also found that Ballarat leads Australia in rates of physical inactivity.

Law and order is another important issue. Locals speak of an increase in the usage of the drug, Ice (methamphetamine) leading to increased violence on the weekends.  

Josh Kennedy, 24, of Ballarat North, says Ice usage is widespread in the music scene.  

“Melbourne has a lot more to offer than Ballarat. There is a lack of things to do for kids on weekends so they turn to drugs and alcohol,” he said.

Labor has tried to make the Ice problem an election issue, with Opposition Leader Mr Daniel Andrews promising to introduce strict laws for dealers.

But the executive officer of the Victorian Alcohol and Drug Association, Mr Sam Biondo, told UniPollWatch that the approach of both parties was simplistic.

Mr Biondo said regional towns like Ballarat lacked enough treatment centres, rehabilitation programs and access to emergency services.

“By saying that you’re just going to put more booze buses out there or that you’re going to create greater penalties for people selling to school students isn’t going to stop people selling stuff or stop the demand for illicit substances,” he said.

​There has not been a one term government in Victoria since 1955. The outcome of Wendouree on polling day could determine if the history books are rewritten.

► This is an edited version of a story first published at Unipollwatch.